NATO AT 360°: CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SOUTHERN NEIGHBOURHOOD & THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION
Even as Russia’s war against Ukraine has led NATO Allies to refocus on NATO’s primary mission of collective defence, the Alliance maintains a 360° approach to security. In 2023, NATO took further steps in particular to enhance its partnerships in the South and in the Indo-Pacific. The Assembly, too, kept a sustained focus on both these regions throughout the year.
Renewed focus on a South in turmoil
NATO’s Summit in Vilnius signalled Allies’ renewed focus on the Alliance’s southern neighbourhood. The Summit communiqué recognises the region’s interconnected security, demographic, economic and political challenges, which are aggravated by the impact of climate change, fragile institutions, health emergencies and food insecurity. The communiqué also highlights how these trends provide fertile ground for the proliferation of non-state armed groups, including terrorist organisations, and enable destabilising and coercive interference by strategic competitors. Allies therefore launched a comprehensive and deep assessment of threats, challenges and opportunities for increased engagement in the South. The NATO Secretary General appointed an independent group of experts to lead this review.
The Assembly’s leadership engaged with the group of experts on the margins of the Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum in Washington, D.C. in December. Further engagements are planned in 2024.
The Assembly’s recommendations build, in particular, upon the work of its Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group (GSM), the Assembly’s main forum for engagement with the parliaments of southern partners.
In 2023, the GSM’s work focused on shifting geopolitics in Iran and the Gulf, a theme which was high on the agenda of its meeting in Türkiye in November. In his report for the Group, Theo Francken (Belgium) makes the case for NATO to step up its engagement with the Gulf. “The notion of strategically disengaging from the Gulf has periodically surfaced in Western policy circles,” he writes. “In fact, the challenging nature of the region and both the threats and opportunities it generates are precisely why NATO Allies need to deepen their collective engagement.” The report highlights in particular Iran’s destabilising role. “The Iranian government and its proxies throughout the broader Middle East constitute one of the region’s most compelling and enduring security challenges,” Mr Francken writes. The region plunged into profound turmoil following the horrific terror attack conducted by Hamas and its affiliates against Israel on 7 October. Meeting in Copenhagen for its Annual Session at the time of the attack, the Assembly immediately expressed its solidarity with Israel. The Assembly’s President, Michal Szczerba (Poland), and its Bureau denounced “a new level of massive, terrorist and indiscriminate violence against Israel.” Mr Szczerba travelled to Israel just a month later to witness first-hand the scale and impact of the attack and to convey the Assembly’s solidarity.
Allied countries need to work together to sustain pressure on the regime in Tehran and clearly send the message that violence and oppression against its own civilians, the kidnapping of foreigners, as well as Iranian-backed terrorist acts will have consequences for the regime, and that Iranian support for Russian aggression and war crimes is unacceptable.
Theo Francken (Belgium) NATO PA Vice-President & GSM Rapporteur
China’s challenge and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
Throughout 2023, the Assembly has continued to examine and highlight the challenge posed by an autocratic and increasingly assertive China to Euro-Atlantic security and to the rules based order. “The meteoric rise of the People’s Republic of China is arguably the most significant geopolitical revolution in contemporary history,” writes Ana-Maria Catauta (Romania) in her report on China’s systemic challenge. “The Euro-Atlantic community has little choice but to brace for an extended rivalry with authoritarian China,” she argues.
As recommended by the Assembly in a declaration on accelerating NATO’s adaptation at the Vilnius Summit, authored by Linda Sanchez (United States), the NATO Summit in Vilnius took further steps to refine the Alliance’s response to China’s challenge. In a resolution on delivering on the Vilnius Summit decisions, adopted at the Annual Session in Copenhagen, the Assembly welcomed these steps. The Assembly thus urges Allies “to continue efforts to address China’s systemic challenge, including raising shared awareness, resilience and preparedness, de-risking economic relations and working with new and existing Indo-Pacific partners.” At the same time, it also calls for Allies to “[continue] to seek conditions-based opportunities for constructive dialogue with Beijing, especially on strategic risk reduction and greater transparency with regard to China’s nuclear weapon policies and capabilities.”
China’s multifaceted challenge was a key theme of a visit to Australia in November – the first such visit since 2008. The visit also highlighted Australia’s deepening partnership with NATO. The Australian parliament is a parliamentary observer delegation in the NATO PA and regularly attends Assembly sessions. Canada’s and the United States’ respective strategies towards China and the Indo-Pacific were in focus during a visit to Ottawa, Halifax and Montréal in April and the Parliamentary Transatlantic Forum in Washington, D.C. in December.
While rightly focused on the immediate task of helping Ukraine to prevail in Russia’s unjust and brutal war, the Allies must not lose sight of the systemic, long-term challenge posed by an authoritarian China.
Ana-Maria Catauta (Romania) PCTR Rapporteur